Last night, I dropped my NFC and AFC Championship previews and picks.
Now, let's get to my favorite prop bets - which are also provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati at Kansas City
Joe Mixon UNDER 58.5 rushing yards
Cincinnati's offensive line has struggled creating run lanes. Isaiah Prince is not a great run blocker at right tackle. Kansas City’s defensive line will have an advantage here. I can see Joe Burrow being in a lot of empty formations - if KC gets up, Cincy is going to turn this into a 7 on 7 contest. Mixon is more likely to do his damage in the passing game other than the running game. Mixon has hit this number just once in six out his last seven games. This is my favorite prop on the board.
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 28.5 longest reception and OVER 85.5 receiving yards
Chase had 11 receptions for over 200 yards and three touchdowns against Kansas City in their last matchup. While I think it will be unwise, Chase will have a one on one matchup a handful of times in this game. When he does, Burrow will go to him no matter what. Chase has break away speed and beats his man, making guys miss. Chase has gone over 100 yards in four out of his last five. The one game he didn’t go over, Cincy rested him in the last game of the regular season. Seems like a pretty safe bet.
Tyreek Hill OVER 79.5 receiving yards
Hill had 13 targets in the Buffalo game. He has kind of struggled before that. Which is why this number is pretty low. Hill is starting to find his rhythm back with Mahomes. From what we saw last week, it could only take a couple of drives for Hill to hit this number. I expect KC to be more aggressive early. Hill goes well over 100 and hits this one with ease.
San Francisco at Los Angeles
Cam Akers UNDER 62.5 rushing yards:
My favorite prop of the weekend. San Francisco has the second best run defense in the NFL. Combine that with the fact Los Angeles’s backfield is pretty crowded. This number is high after Akers got 20 plus carries against Tampa. Even with those carries Akers mustered just 48 yards. I wouldn’t be surprised if he received less than half of that workload. He is coming into this game in the doghouse after fumbling in the last two minutes, setting up Tampa for their game tying drive. In two meetings with the 49ers, Rams running backs combined for 97 yards on 35 carries, an average of 2.8 yards per carry and 48.5 yards per game. Akers simply doesn’t look 100 percent out there. Akers will have a short leash and San Francisco will continue to dominate in the trenches. I’ll take Akers under here.
Van Jefferson OVER 29.5 receiving yards
This bet is contingent if Jefferson plays. He is ruled questionable right now, but this bet has value if he is given the green light. San Francisco doubled Davonte Adams on more than 50 percent of passing plays last week. If they do the same to Cooper Kupp, the other LA receivers will have a lot more opportunities. I believe San Francisco will have a lead at some point and LA’s inability to run the ball will force them to pass. Jefferson is a great deep threat and he matches up well with the San Francisco secondary. I’ll take Jefferson here.
Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown (-110)
Considering the way San Francisco uses their most dynamic playmaker in the running game and passing game-this seems like a safe bet. Samuel scored two times in the Wild Card weekend victory against Dallas. He has the ability to score anywhere on the field. We saw Jalen Ramsey get beat by Mike Evans in a one on one setting. I’m assuming Kyle Shanahan will give us guys a chance to win in a one on one matchup. Samuel will have plenty of opportunities to score. Seems like a safe play.
Odell Beckham OVER 54.5 receiving yards and anytime touchdown scorer +140
Beckham will have opportunities to work against this vulnerable San Francisco pass defense. Green Bay had plenty of open crossers last week, but Rodgers refused to pass to anyone not named Davonte Adams or Aaron Jones. Stafford won’t make the same mistake. Beckham has made his hay on underneath crossing patterns and high low dig routes. With safeties heavily guarding the seams with Cooper Kupp, I expect Beckham to have some room to work underneath. Beckham is also the one on one guy LA goes to in the red zone. We saw this in the first quarter in the Tampa game where Stafford threw Odell a one on one fade. Odell has had a touchdown reception in six out of his last nine. Expect Odell to ball out with everything on the line.
The pick: Odell over 54.5 and anytime touchdown
Follow Austin Montgomery on Twitter @AMontgomeryLive
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