And just like that, the boys are rolling again! We picked up a huge outright win with Derrick Henry and Tennessee physically dominating Buffalo last Monday Night. We are officially 4-2 on the year, we can live with that number, but we are going to continue to strive for perfection. Now, the million dollar question is, can Seattle upset New Orleans as a home underdog?
It's going to be close, we have all your answers below!
Week 6 Monday Night Football, with odds presented by DraftKings Sportsbook:
New Orleans at Seattle
Line: New Orleans (-4)
Gut Feeling: Before we dive into any analysis, I want to mention the weather situation in Seattle. The forecast is showing that it is going to be a cold, rainy night in the Pacific Northwest. If you take that into account, and then remember that Russell Wilson is still sidelined with an injury and that New Orleans has an extremely stout defense, the low point total of 41.5 starts to make sense. However, I want to talk more about the spread rather than the point total for a minute. Seattle is in desperate need of a win, after dropping two straight and falling to 2-4 in arguably the league's toughest division. That is a scary place to be. Now, you can look at this two ways. Either Seattle feels their back is against the wall and will rally together to pick up a huge home victory or they aren't able to overcome the Russell Wilson injury and continue to drop games.
For me, I think it's the latter of the two because I don't think Geno Smith is able to do enough to beat New Orleans on his own.
By the Numbers:
--> Jameis Winston is 8-16-1 ATS as a favorite
--> Since 2005, Sean Payton is 37-18-1 ATS in October
--> Seattle and their opponents have collectively scored over 43 total points in ever game this year
--> New Orleans is 3-2 ATS this year, Seattle is 3-3 ATS
Final Thoughts: I feel like Vegas is almost daring me to bet Seattle and/or the over with where the spread and point total are currently sitting, respectively, but I cannot come to terms with betting money on a plummeting Seattle team led by Geno Smith. This roster is atrocious without Wilson, and their playmakers are going to struggle getting the ball given the weather and quarterback situation. In addition, New Orleans is coming off a bye week so they should be well rested, very prepared, and hungry to pick up a huge road win to bring their record to 4-2.
I don't think this will be a pretty game at all, and quite honestly is going to be very sloppy and punt driven, but I am going to elect to stay away from betting the under. With a total of only 41.5, all it takes is a big play or two to completely ruin our chances.
The pick may not be flashy, but I am rolling with Sean Payton, Alvin Kamara and New Orleans as I think their defense dominates and covers the 4 point spread.
Official pick: Saints -4
Follow Jason Oppler on Twitter @JayOppler23
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