What's up my people!!! We are BACK for another great Monday Night football gambling preview. Tom Brady and Tom Brady host New York... and luckily for Tom Brady, Eli Manning won't be coming out of the tunnel and slinging the rock for the G-men.
Can Tampa end their two-game losing streak?
Will New York give Bruce Arians' club all they can handle just like they did to the Kansas City a few weeks ago? Read below to find out!
Week 11 Monday Night Football, with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook:
New York at Tampa Bay
Line: Tampa Bay (-10.5)
Tampa's Cold Streak: Last week, Tampa Bay lost by 10 to the Washington Football Team led by Taylor Heinicke. And to make matters worse, that was with Tampa coming off a bye week. Things of that nature don't normally happen in this sport; veteran led teams typically play rather well after a whole week of rest, rehab, and film study.
As for this week, Tampa takes on a hard-nosed New York squad that consistently puts up a fight. On paper, this shouldn't even be close. Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette are stars, and that's just on the offensive side of the ball. Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski both are still rehabbing from injuries. The former has already been ruled out for this game and the latter is trending towards not playing as well.
Tampa has a dominant defensive line that is 4th against the run and 12th against the pass. It goes without saying that they should take care of business tonight, but will they cover the 10.5 spread is the major question.
New York Return: Finally, Saquon Barkley is back for New York, and that is HUGE news for their ball club. What Saquon is able to do for their offense goes way beyond what the numbers will tell you. Not only is their running game obviously better with him in the backfield, but Daniel Jones and the entire offense are drastically better as well.
For example, Daniel Jones averages 284 passing yards per game with a healthy Saquon as opposed to 204 passing yards per game without him in the starting lineup.
On top of a healthy Saquon, Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, and Darius Slayton will all be suiting up.
This could be key considering Tampa Bay's injury riddled secondary.
By the Numbers:
--> Tampa Bay is averaging 40.5 points over game at home this season!
--> Tom Brady is 41-16 ATS coming off a loss in his career, and 7-2 ATS coming off back-to-back losses
--> Daniel Jones is 11-3 ATS as road underdogs in his career
--> Tampa home overs are 13-7 under Bruce Arians
Final Thoughts: If I was forced to bet the spread, my heavy lean is to take New York and the points. 10.5 feels like a rather large number for a team that has lost two straight games.
However, what really intrigues me is the over/under.
I think Tampa is due for an offensive explosion game, and let's not forget the fact that they are averaging an absurd 40.5 points at home this year. An angry Tom Brady and aggressive Bruce Arians should lead to plenty of touchdowns. On the other sideline, New York will be the healthiest they have been in weeks. And even though Tampa defensive line is very strong, Saquon has proved on multiple occasions that he can be a dynamic pass-catching running back and give the defense fits regardless where he lines up.
My prediction: Tampa 31, New York 24
Official pick: OVER 49.5
Follow Jason Twitter @JayOppler23
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