The men’s French Open is wide open at Roland Garros this week, with the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, withdrawing from the tournament. Phenom Carlos Alcaraz rises to become the new favorite. Novak Djokovic is the second choice right behind him. Djokovic is one of four active tennis players outside of Nadal to win a French Open championship. The only other player in the tournament to host the trophy is Stan Wawarinka.
Let’s break down who can become the new king of Clay and host the French Open championship, with odds provided by Betfred Sportsbook.
The Favorites:
Carlos Alcaraz (+130)
Even before Nadal’s withdrawal, the odds were heavily moving in favor for Alcaraz as the pre-tournament favorite. He is the new generational face of the sport. Alcaraz is coming off a disappointing third round exit in the recent tournament in Rome, but has titles on the clay with tournament wins at the Madrid Open and Barcelona Open.
He is the most complete tennis player in the game. His 42 percent break points conversion rate is one of the best in the world. He has an overwhelming serve. This is the breakthrough point for him here. He won the 2022 U.S. Open and this can add his second Grand Slam title to his resume. He is the world number one for a reason. I think Alcaraz has a chance to prove it here.
Novak Djokovic (+190)
Novak was staring at a potential quarterfinal match with Nadal. With Nadal out, Novak would just need to beat Dominic Thiem to get to the semifinal. Djokovic is the most accomplished player in this tournament and has won the title in Roland Garros in 2016 and 2021. There is not much to handicap here.
Novak will be in play for another Grand Slam title. We got him at a value price of +190.
Values/Longshots:
Dominic Thiem (+6500)
It’s crazy to think Thiem is 93rd in the world right now. Before Covid shut down the world, Thiem was ranked third in the world. Thiem won the U.S. Open in 2020 and finished runner-up to Nadal in both 2018-2019. Over the last few years Thiem’s career has fallen off a cliff. He has overcome many significant injuries and confidence issues. He has spent the last season playing mostly Challenger events. The only reason he is in the tournament is because of Nadal’s withdrawal.
If you believe in great stories, Thiem is the guy to root for. Clay is his favorite surface. He gets the best draw any 93rd ranked player has ever got. I see him having great value at +6500
Daniil Medvedev (+1500)
Medvedev just won the first clay tournament in his life last weekend in Rome. So we are getting a man on a hot streak of sorts. Medvedev won another masters event this year in Miami. He seems to be playing some of the best tennis of his career. In a wide open field I love the value of Medvedev. His first serve percentage has been hovering over 60 percent. His 43 percent breakpoint save rate is up there with Alcaraz.
He is the number three ranked player in the world. Yet he is getting zero respect because of his past issues playing on clay and getting a raw draw. I’ll take the number three player in the world at 28/1 with Nadal out, thank you very much. We will see if this is the tournament Medvedev wins his first Grand Slam Championship.
The pick: Medvedev one unit +1500; Thiem three units +4000
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