Earlier this offseason, I released some of my fantasy football sleepers relative to Average Draft Position (“ADP”), including Davis Mills, Cordarrelle Patterson and Hayden Hurst. Now, we look to the other side of the coin – possible busts in relativity to draft position.
Today we’ll focus on quarterbacks because some big names could be in big trouble…
First, for frame of reference, these are the fantasy QBs I consider to be “safe” relative to ADP:
Josh Allen
Justin Herbert
Aaron Rodgers
Matthew Stafford
Kirk Cousins
Derek Carr
Daniel Jones
Davis Mills
Mitchell Trubisky
And what exactly constitutes a “safe” fantasy play in my mind? Well, check out my tweet on this exact topic. Now, to the potential busts relative to ADP:
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
Fantasy Pros ADP: QB2
I’m not reinventing the wheel out here, I’m just operating within the normal parameters of logic: How do we know Mahomes will be as good without Tyreek Hill? Do you feel overly confident in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore? Does Clyde Edwards-Helaire give you the rushing balance needed to keep Mahomes clean in the pocket, and to give KC the true offensive balance it desires?
I’m perfectly fine with Mahomes in the top six or seven fantasy QBs, but the “bust” label would specifically be related to his current ADP as QB2. I don’t think he “hits” on that ranking.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Fantasy Pros ADP: QB4
Ankle injuries worry me when it comes to aggressive, explosive scramblers. Pre-injury, I didn’t see improvement in Lamar’s quick-release throws. I’d like to see quicker reads and better pre-snap understanding at this point in his career. Again, I’m fine taking him in the top 10 QBs, but I don’t think he will “hit” on his QB4 ADP.
Kyler Murray, Arizona
Fantasy Pros ADP: QB5
I’ve had a lot of success with Kyler in fantasy, so I don’t necessarily “want” him to be in this article. But the realities are what they are: WR1 DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the first six games of the season and WR2 Christian Kirk – who always had good chemistry and timing with Kyler – is now in Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence. QB5 is gonna be much tougher to connect on, given these extenuating circumstances.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
Fantasy Pros ADP: QB5
A “surprise” appendectomy is not a fun thing. How do we know Joe Burrow will be his normal self out there? Should I bother reaching high for Burrow as the QB5, when I can stack up on other positions and wait to take Cousins at QB14 or Carr at QB15?
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay
Fantasy Pros ADP: QB9
This one is a bit of a reach. On name value alone, I figured Brady’s Redraft ADP would be around QB6 or 7. So, maybe TB12 can “hit” on QB9 because he’s somewhat under-drafted at the moment.
Still, my reasoning for his inclusion in this piece is simple: I have Ryan Jensen (Center) as the second-most important overall player on Tampa Bay. He blew out his left knee in practice a couple weeks ago, and I’m not confident we’ll be seeing him at all during the fantasy regular season. Tom Brady is 45 years old and loves Jensen; he needs him out there for protection, leadership and high-level strategic reasons. Tampa better hope its other offensive linemen step up in a really serious way.
John Frascella is a published sports author and Senior Fantasy Analyst at Aaron Torres Online. Follow him on Twitter @LegendSports7 for all things fantasy throughout the upcoming football season.