Wake up everyone... ITS GAMEDAY!!!!!!!
That's right, Week 0 is behind us, and it's the first Thursday of the college football season. Can you feel the excitement?
All August long, the Aaron Torres Media staff has been previewing the season, looking at everything from the most overrated teams in the sport, to playoff dark horses and Heisman contenders.
Today though, it's time.
Time to make our playoff and national championship picks.
Below, our team shares their thoughts on how this season will lay out:
Final Four: Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, Washington
National Champion: Florida State over Georgia
No. 4 Washington vs. No. 1 Georgia
Georgia has a new quarterback in Carson Beck, but there might not be growing pains with one of the best offensive lines in the country in front of him and some great receiving weapons. Brock Bowers is one of the best football players in the country and then Ladd McConkey, Rara Thomas, and Dominic Lovett round out the weapons. The running backs should also be very good. The defense is going to be even better this year than it was last year. Zion Logue, Nazir Stackhouse, Tramel Walthour, and Warren Brinson are all back up front and are joined by some younger guys, with Mykel Williams being the best of the bunch. Smael Mondon Jr. is also a huge key on the inside for Georgia. Javon Bullard also is back at safety and might be the biggest key in general for the Bulldogs in the secondary.
The Huskies burst onto the scene last season behind a renewed and explosive offense. Michael Penix Jr. is a real Heisman contender in Kalen DeBoer’s offense and almost the entire offense is back too. Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan are both back to make one of the best receiving duos in the country and Dillon Johnson is going to be a force as the running back. The offensive line should also be solid. The Huskies need to improve on defense after last year. Bralen Trice is a star off the edge for Washington and Zion Tupuola-Fetui and Tuli Letuligasenoa join him on the interior. Ralen Goforth at linebacker and Jabbar Muhammad at cornerback are also two keys that were added through the portal.
Washington has the style of offense that can stretch and bother any defense, especially with Michael Penix Jr., and that includes Georgia. Still, the Georgia offense is the difference in this matchup because the Washington defense should be improved, but not playoff-caliber. This game should be close in the first half, but Georgia will pull away late and win 48-28.
No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 2 Michigan
This might be Jim Harbaugh’s best team he’s had in Ann Arbor. JJ McCarthy is back at quarterback and should be much improved and he’s joined by two great running backs in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. They also should have one of the best offensive lines in the country. Wide receiver is a concern, but Cornelius Johnson should be very good out wide. The defense should be very good with Mason Graham and Kris Jenkins back up front on the interior. Junior Colson and Michael Barrett are the two keys in the linebacking corps as well. Will Johnson at cornerback and then Rod Moore and Makari Paige at safety leady the secondary.
This is the year Florida State returns to being a national contender. Jordan Travis is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and is a Heisman Trophy frontrunner. The offense is loaded at receiver with Johnny Wilson back, and the additions of transfers Keon Coleman (Michigan State) and then Jaheim Bell (South Carolina) at tight end. Trey Benson is also back at running back and is massive weapon to take pressure off Travis. The offensive line should also be no issue and be fine protecting the offense.
The offense is loaded, but the key will be the defense. Jared Verse and Fabien Lovett Sr. are both back up front with Patrick Payton too. Braden Fiske and Darrell Jackson Jr. are also two keys that transferred in up front. Four starters are back in the secondary and both linebackers. Fentrell Cypress II is the big key that transferred in at cornerback.
Michigan has the power to run through most teams, but it’ll be different in this game. Florida State has the skill position talent and the quarterback to really bother the Wolverines in this game. The defense should also really disrupt the passing game and their great running game up front. The back end should also have no issues there too. Florida State is the better team and wins this game 45-35.
No. 3 Florida State over No. 1 Georgia
Florida State doesn’t have the talent to match Georgia position by position completely, but in this game it’s their style of play that will bother the Bulldogs the most. Jordan Travis’ mobility and the height and skill of the receivers the Seminoles have will be massive in this matchup. If things break down, Travis can buy time and create and find the open man in the receiving corps. The Seminole defense should be able to confuse and stifle Carson Beck. No one can guard Brock Bowers, but the Seminoles have the quality of defense to at least slow him down. This has the makings of a classic if this matchup happens. Still, it’s so hard to repeat and almost impossible to three-peat. Florida State wins a close game 41-38, and makes a statement that they’re back on the national stage and that they’re there to stay.
Garrett Carr
Final Four: Penn State, Georgia, Michigan, Texas
National Champion: Penn State over Georgia
Experts in psychology will tell you to trust your gut, because studies show that your gut is actually quite an accurate predictor of future events. And, picking my alma mater Penn State to win the national championship may be seen by some to be a homer pick. I even tried to talk myself out of it.
But my gut can’t quite shake it.
First, for the other three participants.
Whether Texas wins or loses their week two matchups against my fifth-ranked team, Alabama, I think they will find a way to make the playoff. I’m a believer in the Steve Sarkisian-Quinn Ewers marriage in year two. I love their offensive line and skill guys, and I think the offense will bury a Big 12 that I don’t think will be as strong top to bottom as it was last year. The defense has some more question marks, but, again, I don’t think the Big 12 is going to have quite as good offenses as they did last year. The only road conference game the Longhorns play out-of-state is Iowa State, as well. Texas goes 12-1, wins the Big 12, and makes the playoff.
Georgia is much more self-explanatory. I’m not as high on them as many are, but their schedule is atrocious, with only one opponent, Tennessee, ranked inside the AP preseason top 20. I actually do have the Dawgs slipping up somewhere, but they make it in as 12-1 SEC Champions in a de-facto playoff game against 11-1 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
As evidenced by where I ranked Penn State, I have the Wolverines losing in Beaver Stadium in November. I think the fact that it will truly be the first time they are tested all year, coming in what will be a house-of-horrors type environment in Happy Valley means they drop that game. But they beat Ohio State at the Big House to end the year and wait anxiously on Selection Sunday as the pundits argue whether Alabama should be punished for making their conference championship game when Michigan did not. Ultimately, I think the Wolverines get the nod, barely.
I’m not the only one picking Penn State to make the College Football Playoff. Plenty of major media types are (including maybe one guy below).
But no one is picking them to win it all, as far as I’ve seen.
And I get it. It’s a big jump from never making the playoff (though they’ve been frequently close) to winning it all.
But it’s a jump that LSU made in 2019. And I think the Penn State defense can be as good as that LSU offense. Yes, I think the Penn State defense can be historically good.
The Nittany Lions boast all three units on defense ranked in Phil Steele’s top five of his position group rankings. And, having been around many of Penn State’s top players frequently over the last eight months, the hype is valid. They are big, strong, fast and physical. It’s the perfect personnel for defensive coordinator Manny Diaz’s scheme that features a lot of blitzing with press man behind it. Penn State has the corners and safeties to play that way, and a half-dozen players that can get home. With Ohio State’s offensive line a huge question mark, I think the Nittany Lion defense terrorizes the Buckeyes and they win in Columbus, before beating Michigan at home.
On offense, much rides on the play of sophomore quarterback Drew Allar. If he lives up to the billing of being 247 Sports’ top quarterback prospect in the nation in 2022, this team is in serious business. All reports, both public and private, have him living up to that potential. Add in one of the best 1-2 punches at running back in the nation in bona fide Heisman contender Nick Singleton and his equally-productive sophomore classmate Kaytron Allen, plus the best offensive line in Happy Valley in a generation and elite tight ends, and you’ve got an offense that’s going to be able to score enough points on days when the defense doesn’t have its fastball. There won’t be many of those days.
The physicality in the run game and familiarity with all that the Rose Bowl entails will lead Penn State to a win over Texas in Pasadena. And, I think that Nittany Lion defense gives Georgia, a team that I think will have scraped by multiple times to even get to the national title game, fits. Penn State beats Georgia in Houston 24-14, and James Franklin becomes the first African-American to win an FBS national championship.
Wish-casting? No. Just going with my gut.
Aaron Torres
Final Four: Michigan, Alabama, Penn State, Florida State
National Champion: Michigan over Alabama
For those who are listeners of the Aaron Torres Podcast, or the College Football Betting Show with Aaron Torres - forgive me. I feel like I have talked a ton about these picks the last few weeks.
And since my two shocking picks (Florida State and Penn State) have largely been discussed above, I'll try to keep it brief.
In terms of those two programs, there's a lot to like.
From the Penn State perspective, I actually did a long form piece on why they're a playoff contender a week ago, highlighting a lot of what Garrett said above. Two elite running backs. Difference-makers on every level of the defense. A quarterback with as much upside as anyone. I think they split the Michigan and Ohio State games, and find themselves in the playoff.
As for Florida State, I actually think you could make a compelling argument for both Clemson and FSU to be this year's ACC champ. Ultimately I chose Florida State because I believe they will beat LSU - rather convincingly actually - to springboard themselves into the national conversation. They were the ACC's best rushing attack last year and could be even better in 2023, all while boasting - as Jake mentioned above - the biggest, arguably most physical receiving room in college football. They also double elite pass rushing on defense (hell, Jared Verse) with one of the nation's best secondaries.
I don't think it's crazy, as Jake said above, to pick them to win it all.
However, I have both losing in the semifinals to Alabama and Michigan.
From the Alabama perspective, I guess I'm just not as worried about the Crimson Tide quarterback situation as everyone else. In reality, if Alabama is to reach its potential, it will come down to whether all their talk this off-season about returning to their physical, ground-and-pound, old school ways comes to fruition. If it does, I think they steamroll the SEC East, and beat Georgia in Atlanta. With Georgia taking a loss in the regular season (my prediction is Ole Miss shocks them at home), that eliminates the reigning two-time national champion.
Then, finally there's Michigan.
And if you've heard the Aaron Torres Pod, you know that I believe there isn't a program which is better suited to handle all the off-field distractions that have come their way this off-season than the Wolverines. Remember, this is a program which has seen its head coach flirt with the NFL in each of the last two off-seasons, and even take an interview with the Minnesota Vikings... ON NATIONAL SIGNING DAY, and they haven't missed a beat.
It's a veteran, experienced group, with the talent to back it up. JJ McCarthy is the best quarterback of the Harbaugh era, Corum and Edwards the best one-two punch in the country, with an elite offensive line and even more elite defense. Jim Harbaugh boasted at Big Ten Media Days that he believes they could set a record for NFL Draft picks next spring. Even if he's exaggerating a bit, that still means they probably have somewhere north of 12 or 13 players who will get drafted which is staggering.
Put simply, Michigan has been building towards this moment for three years.
They have taken a stranglehold of their rivalry with Ohio State and made back-to-back playoffs.
The final step: Win it all.
They do that this season.
Follow Aaron on Twitter - @Aaron_Torres
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