It's Friday, it's the first day of December, and you know what that means: It's time to make some college football championship game picks!!!!!!
That's right, with playoff spots on the line, all five games have meaning and this week has never felt bigger.
Below are the picks, and a quick reminder: If you're not subscribed to the College Football Betting Pod, make sure to do so.
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Now, to the picks:
Pac-12 Championship Game - No. 5 Oregon vs. Washington (OVER 66.5), Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
When Washington won on a last second walk off in the Apple Cup to survive yet another close game last week, I had a thought: "Oregon should be favored when these two teams meet in Vegas next week."
Considering that Washington has a head-to-head win and was undefeated entering the game, I thought it was a hot take.
So, you can imagine my surprise when I saw the opening line, and Oregon was a 9.5 point favorite! For an undefeated team with a head-to-head win over the opponent they're playing this weekend, that is insanely disrespectful.
Because of it, I am not going to bet the line here. I think Oregon is the better team, but I think 9.5 points is entirely disrespectful to Washington and probably the chip on the shoulder that they need.
(I also think that if this game is as one-sided as everyone seems to think, that Dan Lanning could try to run up the score for style points)
So instead of taking either side, I'll take the over.
The bottom line is that while Washington has won a lot of close games last year, one thing that no one is talking about is this: When they've played in good weather, they put up points. Even if the game ends up being close. The 22 points they put up against Oregon State two weeks ago and 24 points they put up in the Apple Cup were in pouring rain, while the 35 they put up against Utah three weeks ago, and the 52 and 42 they put up on USC and Stanford were under perfect conditions.
Even if Oregon puts on the beat down everyone expects, I still expect Washington - in a perfect, temperature controlled Allegiant Stadium - to put up at least 28-31 points.
Do that and the over should hit with ease.
Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma State (+15.5) vs. No. 7 Texas, Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
One thing that I think we do too much as sports fans - and in society in general - is overreact to the last thing we saw.
Well, in terms of Texas what is the last thing we saw: In a largely standalone Black Friday game, the Longhorns played their second-best game of the year (behind only Alabama) and won by 50. Now, everyone thinks they're an unbeatable juggernaut that's about to win this game by 30.
The problem is, that game basically runs counter to everything Texas has been all season. In the four games before Texas Tech, they beat Iowa State by 10 (that was a one-score game into the final minutes), TCU by three and Kansas State by three. They also had a game earlier in the year where they needed a goal line stand to beat a bad Houston team.
So my question is simple: Which is the "real" Texas? The one that dominated a one-game sample size a week ago? Or played three straight close games before that?
I think it's the latter.
I also think an explosive Oklahoma State offense will be able to hang close, and potentially pull off the outright upset. If Texas has one weakness it's the pass defense, which is 90th nationally, while Oklahoma State quarterback Alan Bowman has thrown for 300+ yards in three of his last four games.
I won't go ahead and pick the outright win, but 15.5 is way too many. Give me the Pokes to cover.
SEC Championship Game: No. 8 Alabama (+5.5/money line) vs. No. 1 Georgia, Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET, CBS
First off, this is the final SEC on CBS game, which brings a single, solitary tear to my eye. As a guy who grew up on Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson every Saturday afternoon at 3:30 I'm sorry to see it go. Seeing Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson call Indiana vs. Penn State at 3:30 on a Saturday next year just isn't going to hit the same.
Now as far as this game is concerned, I'm taking Alabama to not only cover, but win outright.
One, it's what I said about Texas above: Don't get too wrapped up in the last thing you saw. Yes, Alabama struggled against Auburn. But at the same time, I think there was a little lookahead factor there (sorry to those who revere the rivalry, but it's true). That's not who Alabama is, and is instead, a team that has literally gotten incrementally better every, single week this season since the South Florida game in early September.
Meanwhile, with Georgia, they're truly an elite team. I won't take away anything from them.
But there are a few things worth noting that I think are in Bama's favor.
1) Alabama has the best secondary Georgia has faced all year. Incredibly, the strength of this Dawgs team is the pass game. But look at the secondaries they've faced. Ole Miss ranks 61st nationally in pass defense. Missouri 63rd. Tennessee 80th. Kentucky 89th.
Alabama ranks 15th, the only Top 25 pass defense Georgia has seen all year.
2) Georgia has made a habit of letting teams hang around until halftime this year, then pulls away late. Think South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri, etc. The problem is, Alabama's defense basically gets better as time goes on, and basically doesn't give up points in the second half. Even the Auburn game last week, the Alabama defense gave up a grand total of three points in the final 25 minutes of game action.
Georgia won't be able to just simply overwhelm Alabama with talent like everyone else.
In the end, I've got Alabama winning 24-22, with playoff chaos scenarios unfolding from there.
Big Ten Championship Game: No. 16 Iowa vs. No. 2 Michigan (-22.5) (OVER 35), Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, FOX
First off, the over/under being set at 35 is absolutely hysterical.
Two, Jim Harbaugh is back, baby and Michigan isn't losing this game. The question though is can they cover?
I think the answer is an unequivocal yes.
One, there's no doubt that Michigan just plays looser and better with him on the sidelines. Heck, if you don't believe me, here is what JJ McCarthy said about it.
"Every game and it's usually right before kickoff, he'll come and find me," McCarthy said. "He's all about getting that first hit and the butterflies just disintegrate from your body. He tries to do his best to simulate that.
Yes, that's a real quote. Jim Harbaugh just walking around throwing shoulders into his best players before kick-off is the exact content I'm here for.
But two, you know what Jim Harbaugh's return also means: Sherrone Moore can focus on calling plays.
I really haven't heard anyone talk about it this week, but this is huge. For the last three weeks, Moore has done an incredible job balancing everything - calling plays, keeping an eye on defense and special teams, making pre-game and halftime speeches. Everything. Now he can just focus on the offense, and when he does, Michigan rolls.
In the six games that Harbaugh wasn't on the sidelines this year (four with Moore as acting head coach), they put up 30, 35, 31, 24, 31 and 30 points. In the six games where Harbaugh is there and Moore is simply focused on calling plays they put up 31, 45, 52, 52, 49 and 41.
The bottom line is I think Michigan plays loose and fast, just like the last two Big Ten title games. The monkey is off their backs and they know they're better than the opponent from the West.
Michigan rolls to a 42-3 win, a cover with the over hitting as well.
ACC Championship Game: No. 14 Louisville (+1.5/ML) vs. No. 4 Florida State, Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
I found all the discourse about all the different College Football Playoff scenarios this week weird, for one simple reason: It feels like a lot of wasted breath to complain about hypotheticals, especially since a Florida State (or frankly Texas) loss clears a lot of things up.
Which is exactly what I think happens this week, with a Louisville win over Florida, which should make the playoff pretty straight forward, with the SEC, Pac-12, Big Ten and Big 12 champions getting in.
(Well, until Georgia loses and the debate begins that they should get in over a one-loss Oregon. Trust me, it's coming)
Anyway, as far as this game, you don't need me to tell you much here. Florida State simply isn't the same team without Jordan Travis, putting up a comically bad 224 yards of total offense last week and just 134 yards passing. Remember too, Florida - which is already awful - was also playing a back-up QB, so it's not as though they were playing some juggernaut.
And keep in mind, that in a game that Florida State wants to run the ball and take pressure off an inexperienced QB, they'll be playing a Louisville run defense that is best in the ACC.
Final from Charlotte: Louisville 24, Florida State 14, and the College Football Playoff picture clears.
Again, until the SEC honks start arguing that a one-loss Georgia should be in over a one-loss Oregon.
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