British Open Betting Preview Part II: Best bets, biggest stay aways + more (presented by Betfred)
If you like early morning golf, The Open is your event. For those on the East Coast, coverage starts at 4:00 am. For those on the West Coast, you can stay up late and see some of the first groups play before falling asleep on the couch.
In Tuesday’s column here at AaronTorresonline.com, you can read all about the course and all the important information you need to know about The Open from keys to winning, media coverage, and a few top-20 plays.
Today we go further in depth with some picks - our ultimate winner who gets the rights to the Claret Jug for a year - who can finish top-5 and top-10 and three head-to-head matchups to exploit.
As always, our partner - Betfred Sportsbook - has a lot of opportunities to get in the action.
TOP 10 PLAYS:
Shane Lowry (+350) - The 2019 champ is playing well and the Ireland native will be in his elements. He’s finished top 20 in the first three majors this year and four of his last five starts. This week that finish is higher.
Jordan Spieth (+300) - He’s not playing great and missed three of the last five cuts, but his record at The Open is hard to ignore. He’s made the last nine cuts with four Top 10’s. He is a very aggressive putter and the tad slower greens will allow him to climb the leaderboard easier.
Patrick Cantlay (+210) - He’s finished in the top 15 at each of the first three majors. It’s only his fourth Open but these stats show he can contend this week. He’s fourth in SG off the tee and fifth in strokes gained for the season. He was eighth at St. Andrew’s last year.
TOP 5 PLAYS:
Rory McIlroy (+190) - Rory could very well win. He’s the favorite after all. He won last week. He won here in 2014. All adds up to being in the mix on Sunday!
Brooks Koepka (+400) - Koepka is at his best on tough courses. That’s why he performs so well at majors. He’s won five majors but never an Open. That could change this week meaning a top-five finish is more than possible.
Tommy Fleetwood (+550) - This is the flyer of the group. The English native would love to win on his home soil. The long-haired slugger’s best chance is for the course to play mean. If it does, his grit will allow him to be in the mix.
WINNER: Viktor Hovland (+2200)
The whole golf world seems to be on Rory McIlroy this week. In full disclosure, going into last week, Rory was going to be my pick. He’s at the top of his game. It's just very difficult to win back-to-back weeks. So, we will switch gears and hope we didn’t overthink this pick.
This week’s pick is Viktor Hovland. He played in the final group at St. Andrew’s last year. He didn’t play well but that will pay dividends this year. He was runner-up to Brooks Koepka at the PGA. He placed seventh at the US Open. Throw in a 3rd-place result at the Players Championship and it seems like Hovland is close to closing the deal on his first major. Links golf will not be an issue for him and Hovland has some stats that show a win could be in the cards this weekend. He is first in approaches from less than 100 yards. He is second with 23 consecutive cuts made and rough proximity. Add in seventh in shots gained off the tee and those all point to being in contention on Sunday.
Players to FADE:
It’s darn near blasphemy to put Scottie Sheffler in this category but his putting has been poor and that’s being kind. He ranks 171st on tour in putts made from 4-8 feet. He ranks 160th in the distance of putts made per round (69 feet). That means his iron play hasn’t been Sheffler like to say the least. Two others that might not have good weeks are Justin Thomas (missed three of his last four cuts and only one finish better than 40th at The Open) and Wyndham Clark (this is only his second Open start and that next major start after a win is tough - unless your name is Tiger).
Longshots:
Looking for some longshot payouts for top 20 or better finishes - Robert Macintyre, Max Homa, Ryan Fox, and cagey veteran Justin Rose.
Head to Head Matchups:
As always, our partner - Betfred Sportsbook - has a lot of opportunities to get in the action.
Here are three that we like. Remember this is for the entire tournament. The player who finishes with a lower score wins the head to head matchup.
Shane Lowry (-138) over Wyndham Clark
Ryan Fox (+100) over Russell Henley
Robert McIntyre (-115) over Jason Day
Follow Stephen Kirck on Twitter - @SKirck
For full US Open odds visit the Betfred Sportsbook
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