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Austin Montgomery's Best Super Bowl Prop Bets

Credit: Odell Beckham Jr.

Super Bowl LVI between Los Angeles and Cincinnati is just around the corner, and with it comes with the hundreds of options of prop bets.

Even if your beloved team didn’t make it to the big game, there are still ways to be invested without betting the spread and the total.

Our partners at DraftKings Sportsbook have tons of options - they have all the categories that satisfy your betting taste from the first song of the halftime show, the color of the Gatorade shower, whether an octopus happens (not an actual octopus). We have eight props we like, covering some of the fun and not so serious ones

(Remember, these numbers are always subject to change - so pay close attention as the odds may shift as the weekend goes on).

Now let's get to our props, again, courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Coin Toss: Heads

To start this is a proposition for fun. It’s not really profitable even if you win. Betting $1.05 to win 1.00 on an event with a true 50/50 probability isn’t the best value. But there is nothing like the sweat of a betting the Super Bowl coin toss, even if it’s for just $10. Heads was the result of the biggest coin toss this year (Buffalo-KC) overtime, and I think heads will rule again Sunday afternoon.

Length of the National Anthem: Over 95 seconds

Another Super Bowl prop classic. I actually don’t have a play here, but I will give you the information to do what you will. This year’s national anthem will be performed by Mickey Guyton - who made history as the first African American woman to be nominated for a Grammy in a country category. At first glance, the total is set extremely low based on past Super Bowl anthem numbers. The average national anthem during the Superbowl is 1:56 over the last 15 seasons. Three anthems have gone over the 2:05 mark most notably last season’s duet that last 2:13. So past history, absolutely screams OVER. But Mickey’s history indicates under, as her longest recorded anthem performance has reached just 81 seconds. Will the stage of the Super Bowl give her the strength and confidence to drown those notes out? I’m not so sure. This is a stay away for me. But if I consume enough “beverages” that influence me to bet it, I will be on the under.

Lean: Under/Stay Away

First play of the game a run (-145)

If Cincinnati gets the ball first, this is a 100 percent a run. Cincy runs the ball on first down at top eight rate in the NFL. Los Angeles is closer to 50/50 but they run the ball on first down more often as well. Looking back at recent history, the first play of the big game being a pass has happened in five of the last seven Super Bowls. I think that trend is bucked here. I’ll take a running play to start.

Anytime defensive/special teams score +225

This is a prop I will usually avoid, but I like for this matchup. The two quarterbacks threw a combined 31 interceptions during the regular season. The Cincy offensive line is going to have trouble handling the Los Angeles pass rush. There will be opportunities for a strip sack or interception here. LA got a defensive touchdown in this first playoff game against Arizona. If down a score, I would not be surprised if we see Ja’Marr Chase in the punt return game. All it takes is for one fluke play for this to hit.

Logan Wilson Over 8.5 tackles and assists and to make an interception (+500)

The pride of Wyoming has been one of the best young linebackers in the game. Wilson is a three down backer, and he ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to pass coverage. He can guard tight ends in the one on one pass game and is good in the run game as well. Wilson's skill set fits well to defend the Rams run scheme, (a scheme that is exactly identical to the one he faces in practice every single day in practice). Wilson has hit this number in five out of his last seven games. In addition, Los Angeles loves to target linebackers covering running backs/tight end/receivers. I feel Wilson might be a target here. We have seen Matthew Stafford make some bad throws. Wilson leads all NFL linebackers with four interceptions on the year.

Rams over 3.5 sacks (+105)

Call me a square, everyone should be on this. Los Angeles ranks second in pass rush win rate while the Cincinnati offensive line ranks second to last in pass block win rate. Joe Burrow has been sacked more times than any QB that has made the Superbowl. Los Angeles has only played two below average offensive lines in the last ten weeks. They are facing inferior competition. Cincy QB Joe Burrow will be more aggressive in holding the ball and trying to buy time for his receivers. Aaron Donald will be a menace on the inside, and Von Miller will cause havoc on the edge. Think this bet is extremely safe.

Ja’Marr Chase Over 26.5 yards longest reception (-115)

Everyone seems to be on Chase’s receiving yards, but I think this bet is sharper. Chase will have to deal with Jalen Ramsey or a bracket coverage we saw in the Kansas City game. Cincy is going to do creative things to get him the ball, and Burrow is going to give him at least one shot to make a big play. Chase has had a 27-plus-yard catch 11 times this season. Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans have had big time receptions against the Rams in the last two playoff games. I like Chase makes a big play on Sunday. I rather root for that than his full game total.

Evan McPherson over 1.5 field goals made (-115)

This prop is still -115 on DK, I suggest you bet it right away. This is the lock of the Super Bowl. McPherson has been on fire. Zac Taylor is a pretty conservative coach and he has a lot of trust in his rookie kicker. He has gone over 1.5 field goals in seven straight games. He’s 12-for-12 in the playoffs. He gets to kick in a perfect environment essentially indoors in California. LA’s defense ranks 12th in the NFL in TD percent in the redzone, Cincy ranks outside the top 20 on the offensive side. There will be field goal opportunities for McPherson.

Los Angeles will have more first downs than Cincinnati (-150)

This is a value bet where we like LA to dominate the game at far better price than the current money line. Cincy is a team that relies more on explosive plays. They rank 19th in offensive DVOA. While LA ranks top 8 in offensive DVOA and top 5 in defensive DVOA. Cincy has really struggled to move the ball consistently in the post season. The LA defense will be their toughest test. I think LA is the better team and I’m pretty confident they will control the game from a yardage standpoint.

Joe Mixon under 62.5 rushing yards and Cam Akers under 64.5 rushing yards

We are going under on both running backs here. If you have followed the columns over the playoffs, these two have gone 4-2 to the under. Mixon will get his carries on first down, but I don’t think they will be efficient against an LA run defense that allows just 3.9 yards per rush. Akers is still not fully 100 percent but he is getting more volume. Fumbling issues combined with Sony Michel being a routine spell keeps this number under.

Odell Beckham over 62.5 receiving yards and anytime TD (+125)

There is a ton of sharp money to the under, but I just don’t get it. Beckham and Stafford have developed chemistry. This Cincy defense ranks 24th in passing DVOA. I can see Cooper Kupp being bracketed when in the slot. Beckham is an elite offensive weapon on the outside. Through three playoff games, OBJ has yardage totals of 54, 69 and 113. He's averaging nearly 79 receiving yards per game in this postseason. I’ll back Beckham going over here.

Highest scoring half - second half (-120)

Six out of the last nine Superbowls, the second half has been juicier half. Teams tend to start out slow, I don’t expect this one to be different. We have seen fireworks in the second half of the last two LA games, and Cincy’s offense got things rolling against Kansas City. This number sits at -155 at most places. So we get value at -120.

Follow Austin on Twitter @AMontgomeryLive


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