Aaron's Georgia-Alabama College Football Title Game Gambling Pick


Credit: Alabama athletics


It's Monday, and you know what that means - it's time to make a national title game gambling pick!!!


And oh, what a title game it will be, as for the second time in five seasons, Georgia and Alabama will square off for the title. It's Saban vs. Kirby. Teacher vs. pupil. Some might even say father versus son.


No, I'm not saying that. But some people are.


Still, with that said, let's get to tonight's pick, as for the final time this season, the college football betting picks will be presented by our partners at DraftKings Sportsbook, which have an incredible offer for first-time users for tonight's game.


Also, you can get a full preview of tonight's game on today's Aaron Torres Podcast.

Now, the pick:


No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 1 Alabama - Monday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN (Indianapolis)


Spread: Georgia (-3)

Over/Under: 52.5


Before we get into the breakdown of this game, let me simply say one thing: There is arguably no one in the media - outside of anyone living in Athens - who should want Georgia to win this game more than me.


I did, after all, pick Georgia to win the national title in the preseason. And I am the guy who spent all season long saying, "This isn't a vintage Bama team."


Which makes what I'm about to say that much more disappointing: This Georgia team simply isn't built to beat Bama. Maybe I'm wrong and my preseason prognostication comes right. But at the same time, I truly believe this is just a truly awful matchup for this particular Dawgs team.


First off, let's go back to the preseason. Remember what Georgia did in late summer? They added Clemson transfer Derion Kendrick to shore up their secondary. It's not that the secondary was "bad" per se, but for Georgia standards it wasn't elite, and the fact that Kirby Smart dipped into the portal so late into the off-season kind of raised a red flag to me like, "Hmm, maybe he doesn't really trust his guys."


So, you add a guy late, and obviously Georgia's pass defense was fine all season. But then again, they never really faced a guy who could expose them. Seriously, with due respect to DJ Uiagalelei, KJ Jefferson, Bo Nix, none of those guys scream "Future NFL quarterback that can make a secondary look bad."


And then Bryce Young came along and picked apart that secondary with surgical precision.


I'm not saying Bryce Young will be as good on Monday night as he was in the SEC title game. But the guy threw for 421 yards and almost 10 yards per completion in the first matchup. Even if he's 75 percent of what he was a few weeks ago, that still feels like enough to put up 28, 31 or 35 points.


Which then brings us to the Georgia offense. And as we look at that side of the football, I'll readily admit that I do think the Dawgs abandoned the run too early in the first matchup between these two teams.


But at the same time, I'm not totally sure how much different things would've been if they hadn't. Why? Because for all the hype about the Georgia defensive front all year, guess who actually led the SEC in fewest rushing yards allowed and fewest yards per carry allowed. Oh, that would be Alabama. That's right, for all the hype about Jordan Davis and the Georgia defensive front, Will Anderson and Alabama were statistically better this year.


Therefore, if Georgia can't run the ball effectively against Bama, and I question if they can, well, then that leaves us with Stetson Bennett needing to make enough plays to outscore Bryce Young and I simply don't see it. Yes, Bennett is a great story. And yes, he's probably better than we give him credit for. But at the same time, in head-to-head matchups with the three best quarterbacks he's faced in his career - Mac Jones, Kyle Trask and Bryce Young - he's 0-3. I don't see it changing on Monday night.


Again, I'm the guy who picked Georgia all season, backed them, supported them and believed in them - and trust me, I tried to do everything I could to justify picking them here.


But at the end of the day, Alabama has the better head coach and better quarterback, and I just don't see the Tide losing to the Dawgs on Monday night.


Final score: Alabama 30, Georgia 21, the Tide are your national title pick.


Gambling Pick: Alabama (+3)


 

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