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2023 US Open Betting Preview: Best bets, stay aways, Top 10 finishes and more (presented by Betfred)



Father’s Day and the US Open golf go hand in hand like peanut butter and jelly, oreos and milk, beer and nachos, and a cookout with family, all of which we hope you consume responsibly at some point during the 123rd US Open this weekend.


In Tuesday’s column here at AaronTorresOnline.com, we put together a one-stop shopping of everything you need to know about the US Open from course info to television times to a few keys to winning plus a couple top 20 plays to consider.


Today, we take a deeper dive into who we think can win, some top 5 and 10 finishers, a couple golfers to stay away from and some head to head matchups we like.


For those on the East Coast, you will have a little more time to determine your plays since the event is being held at Los Angeles Country Club, so the first tee shot for the first round Thursday is at 9:45 am EST.


As always, our partner - Betfred Sportsbook - has a lot of opportunities to get in the action.


TOP 10 PLAYS:


Brooks Koepka (+125): Can he win back-to-back majors? Sure! But that’s a tough task. He won’t slip too far. He’s in great shape. He has confidence. He’s won this event in 2017 and 2018 so he’s looking for a different kind of repeat coming off his PGA crown. He finished 55th last year. That won’t happen again but a top-10 finish is definitely reasonable.


Viktor Hovland (+180): He battled with Koepka at the PGA. That will help him this week, not to mention the motivation that provides him knowing how close he was to a major title. He happens to have the lowest score to par (-27) at the last three majors. He’s on the verge of claiming his first one. This may be too low a play for him.


Patrick Reed (+600): Going with a flyer here and someone who isn’t too well liked on tour. He’s finished in the top 20 at both majors so far this year, including a fourth place showing at the Masters. His short game is his strength. That will be a necessity for someone to climb the leaderboard. There might not be many rooting for him, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t capable.


TOP 5 PLAYS:


Xander Schaffele (+360): Another golfer who is on the verge of winning his first major. He’s been close and has been seventh or better six times at the US Open. The native Californian would love to put the first on his resume in his home state.


Jon Rahm (+210): Anyone in this category can win and we are going with chalk because these players deserve the accolades. He’s second in all-around stats, which will help him this week.


Rory McIlroy (+300): The face of the PGA Tour had to be somewhat mentally defeated with the news of the PGA-LIV merger right before the Canadian Open last week. Now that the immediate dust has settled, McIlroy can go back to doing what he does best - contending at majors! He’s finished in the top 10 at the last four US Opens. The extra wide fairways and a little revenge just might be the recipe to win here. We’ll take a top-5 showing.


WINNER: It seems too easy but let’s ride the Scottie Scheffler (+600) bandwagon this week. In the two best fields this year (PGA and Players Championship), he’s won and finished second. His putting hasn’t been his best, but the rest of his game is at a level others players can’t reach. Plus, he’s ranked first tee to green on tour. That matters this week.


Players to FADE: These guys can all be hoisting the trophy too Sunday night, but these three players are not high on our list this week. Max Homa (+300) is a Californian. He owns the course record here (61 while playing in college at California) so we can have egg on our face, but he has never finished top-10 in a major. The home course pressure and that fact are tough to overcome. Justin Thomas (+4000) missed the cut at The Masters and was T65 at the PGA. He missed the cut in his last start. That does not bode well heading into a major. This is another gutsy pick but Patrick Catlay (+1600) is another player on this list. He’s only had four top 10s at majors in his career. If there is a week he climbs into contention this would be it for the UCLA alumnus but his final round scoring ranks 42nd on tour. Hard to win the US Open on Sunday with that scoring average.


Longshots: Here are three players to take a flyer on, maybe not to win, but a solid finish. Mito Pereira (+1400), Si Woo Kim (+7000), and yes, Phil Mickelson (+25000).


Head to Head Matchups:


As always, our partner - Betfred Sportsbook - has a lot of opportunities to get in the action.


Here are three that we like. Remember this is for the entire tournament. The player who finishes with a lower score wins the head to head matchup.


Mito Pereira (-138) over Joaquin Niemann (-115)

Hideki Matsuyama (+100) over Tony Finau (-150)

Kurt Kitayama (-125) vs Andrew Putnam (-110)


Follow Stephen Kirck on Twitter - @SKirck



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