Week 0 is here and college football is about to begin - and with it, it's time to drop one of my favorite columns of the summer.
My favorite over/under win total bets, in this case of the 2023 college football season.
Two years ago I went 5 for 5 in my picks and unfortunately (at least for bettors) time didn't allow me to knock out my picks.
But with the season officially starting on Saturday, this feels like as good a time as any to drop my official over/under win total picks for the 2023 season.
Remember, these aren't picks to win the national title or conference championships - just who I think is most likely to either go over or under the Vegas number.
As always, the odds are provided by our partners at Betfred Sportsbook.
Kentucky OVER *6.5 wins
So, there's a little bit of a caveat to this bet - since Kentucky's over/under win total has actually jumped from 6.5 to 7.5 since I first wrote about the Wildcats back in July.
Apparently I'm a guy who can move the market. Who knew!!!
In all seriousness, I'm going to include this, because I did get Kentucky at 6.5 earlier this summer, and did love this bet at the time. Heck, I'd still take it at 7.5.
The reason why is simple: While I wasn't sold on Will Levis last year (ask anyone who listens to the Aaron Torres Pod), this year it’s the exact opposite - I love the Cats, and it’s largely because it feels like transfer quarterback Devin Leary isn’t getting enough credit going into this season. A season ago Leary was banged up at NC State, but does anyone besides me remember that when he was last healthy?
That season, he was one of the best quarterbacks in college football.
That isn’t hyperbole. In 2021, he finished with 35 touchdowns and just five interceptions, helping NC State to a 9-3 season. That season also included wins over Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina.
Well now he’s headed to Lexington where he’ll be surrounded by a 1,000 yard rusher in Vanderbilt transfer Ray Davis and the most underrated receiving room in the SEC. For all the “Will Levis didn’t have NFL receivers to throw to” nonsense from draft time, that narrative simply isn’t true. Barrion Brown is a former Top 100 recruit who had 50 catches a year ago, and Dane Key was another true freshman who had 30+ grabs and five touchdown catches. Kentucky has NFL wide receiver talent. It's just young.
As for last year’s legitimately biggest issue - the offensive line - well it got fixed. How about the Wildcats adding four transfers overall, including Ben Christman from Ohio State, Tanner Bowles from Alabama and Cortland Ford from USC. Bluntly, there are worse places to add transfers from than Alabama, Ohio State and Southern Cal.
Then there’s the defense which is always elite (the Wildcats have been Top 25 in the country in four of the last five years) and a schedule which breaks nicely. Two Group of 5 teams and an FCS squad start things off, before a manageable SEC-opening slate at Vanderbilt and Florida at home. The Wildcats have also won three of four against South Carolina, and their last four home games against Missouri, a team that will travel to Lexington this year.
Yuuuuup, I’m buying the Big Blue Kool-Aid. And love the OVER of 6.5 wins. Again, I'd take it at 7.5 as well, as I think this is an eight-win team.
Wisconsin - Over 8.5 wins (-145)
If Kentucky is my favorite bet of the fall, well, Wisconsin isn't far behind.
One, there is the obvious coaching upgrade because, well, Luke Fickell is one of the best coaches in the sport in my opinion. The fact that Wisconsin is the job he ultimately left Cincinnati for is still a little bit shocking to me.
Beyond that though, is what this team is capable of doing in Year 1.
First off, the offense should be much more fun and explosive, as Fickell brought in Air Raid guru Phil Longo as offensive coordinator from North Carolina. Then, they signed sixth-year senior Tanner Mordecai to take over under center, a guy that 72 touchdowns and over 7,000 yards the last two seasons.
Seriously, just think about that. Think about a real passing attack with the ground game and defense Wisconsin has always had. That's sort of terrifying. Speaking of which, don't forget that defense - which finished in the Top 15 nationally last year. Incredibly, the Badgers lost three games by six points or less, all while having one of the worst offenses in college football.
Imagine if they're just a tiiiiiiny bit better this year?
Finally, there is the schedule, where the Badgers don't play either Michigan or Penn State, and get Ohio State at home. That has already been announced as a night game and will fall on Halloween weekend, which should provide for one of the craziest atmospheres in college football.
Bottom line, I like this staff, I like the changes and I like the schedule.
Add it up, and I love the over here.
Washington - UNDER 9.5 wins (-140)
All off-season long, I've called Washington "the internet's team." What I mean by that, is that Washington is a group that everyone sort of liked coming out of last season, then all of a sudden this summer, it became a rush on the internet to see who could heap the most praise on Kalen DeBoer's club.
"I like them" turned into "playoff contender" turned into "they could beat the Seahawks on the right day" seemingly overnight.
Me? I like the Huskies. Don't love them.
First off, they got a little bit of unfortunate news this week when leading returning rusher Cam Davis got hurt and will miss the regular season. That just sucks, and to be clear, an unforeseen injury isn't why I'm selling my U-Dub stock.
At the same time, it does put more pressure on Michael Penix's shoulders, and while I like Penix, he's another guy that the hype has gotten a bit much on. Some are even talking about his as a potential first round pick in the next NFL Draft.
It feels a bit much to me, especially when you consider that prior to his arrival at Washington he completed 56 and 54 percent of his passes in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, struggling to stay healthy. I know that his success last year directly coincided with being reunited with DeBoer, but it's hard to imagine things getting much better than a season ago.
That's especially true because of the schedule, which is brutal. That's honestly why (spoiler) I'm not picking any Pac-12 team to make the College Football Playoff: The league is insanely tough top to bottom, and outside of a game or two, there's no real gimmes.
With Washington, the schedule includes USC and Oregon State on the road (both preseason Top 20 teams) with Utah and Oregon at home. That doesn't include what could be a spicy final (maybe?) Apple Cup with Washington State, and even the out of conference isn't a cakewalk with Boise at home and Michigan State on the road.
I guess my point is that last year was kind of a best-case scenario in terms of results, schedule, injuries etc. I find it hard to believe the Huskies can duplicate that again.
Arizona Wildcats - OVER 4.5 Wins (-175)
How did you spend your summer? Me, I was Gone Fischin!!!!!!
That's right, I love what Jedd Fisch has done in two short years with this program, and believe the Wildcats will become bowl eligible for the first time since the 2017 season.
In terms of why I like them, well, one, they are coming off a five-win season. I love when a program is building momentum, and all you're asking them to do is match their win total from the season before.
Two, they'll have one of the most explosive offenses in college football yet again. The Wildcats quietly had the No. 6 pass offense in all of college football last year, and were Top 20 nationally overall. Well, in 2023, they return QB Jayden De Laura and a pair of elite receivers in Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan who combined for over 100 catches a season ago. The defense, which was admittedly terrible last year, should be better after loading up in the portal.
Finally, there is the schedule. It feels like there are two comfortable wins out of conference (Northern Arizona, UTEP) and a conference schedule that includes the teams picked to finish 10th, 11th and 12th in the league, Arizona State, Colorado and Stanford.
Plus, this is a team which has proven they can win big games against elite opponents, knocking UCLA out of the playoff race in November last season.
I'm buying what Fisch is selling - and like the Wildcats to go over 4.5 wins.
Vanderbilt - OVER 3.5 wins (-170)
I won't spend too much time talking Vanderbilt football here, because, well, it's Vanderbilt football. But this kind of has the same vibes as Arizona above. Vanderbilt won five games last year, and now we just need them to win four?
Yes. Please.
Remember, this team closed strong with victories over Florida at home and Kentucky on the road in the final month. And now they return a good percentage of their offense, including quarterback AJ Swann (who threw for 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in his time as a starter), three of his top four receivers, with four starters back on the offensive line.
I like the sound of that.
And while the defense is still a major work in progress, the schedule breaks *very* nicely for the Commodores. They open with Hawaii and Alabama A&M at home, before playing at UNLV in Week 4, under the Rebels first year head coach Barry Odom.
A 3-1 start is realistic.
Do that, and they need one win over their final eight games to hit this over.
I’m riding with the Dores.
UConn - OVER 4.5 (-170)
You didn't really think I'd let this entire article pass without writing about my king, Jim Mora, did you?
Ok, so that's a little tongue-in-cheek and yes, I'm a UConn guy. But I really do like the make-up of this team.
First off, like the two teams above, UConn just needs to go 5-7 in the regular season, which would actually be a one-game regression from last year. Put simply, I don't see it happening.
Remember, last year was Year 1 of a new regime and the Huskies overcame a TON to get bowl eligible. They lost their starting quarterback Ta'Quan Roberson on the second series of the season, and then lost Nathan Carter, who at the time was the nation's leading rusher, a few weeks later. Most of the season was spent with true freshman Zion Turner at quarterback.
Well this year, with respect to Turner, the Huskies will start a fifth-year senior in transfer Joe Fangano, a transfer, who played in offensive coordinator Nick Charlton's system at Maine for most of his career. Overall, the Huskies return 14 starters, including potential All-Americans Christian Haynes on the offensive line and Jackson Mitchell at linebacker.
Add in a schedule with several big games at home and two FCS schools and this puppy is going over.
In Jim Mora, we trust!
All odds provided by Betfred Sportsbook
Follow Aaron on Twitter - @Aaron_Torres
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