Updated: May 2, 2021
It’s been a minute but we are finally back. The NFL Draft is one of the most underrated sporting events of the year. We finally get a taste of football once again. For college football fans, we get to see where our favorite players continue their careers.
Oh, and for gamblers we get to, well, gamble. So let’s go ahead and look at this year’s best NFL Draft props.
It is important to research, look at mock drafts from multiple sources, and to keep up with the latest news. The draft is a fluid event and things can change in an instant.
But here are our best bets. Most of the lines are provided by MyBookie (unless otherwise noted). And remember, if you want to wager on props, use MyBookie promo code “TORRES” to double your first deposit.
Here are my best NFL Draft props:
Minnesota Vikings to Take a Defensive Player (+100)
Look for Mike Zimmer to boost his defense after his unit finished outside the Top 15 in defensive DVOA for the first time since he has been the head coach. The Vikings also need a tackle, but Rashawn Slater and Penei Sewell will almost certainly be taken by the time the Vikings slot roles around, and the Chargers will also be in a spot to take an offensive tackle and pick right before them. If Alijah Vera Tucker is picked before and we don’t see a slide in the top three tackles, Minnesota will be forced to go defense with this pick.
The best rusher in this draft Jaelan Phillips will be there for them at 14. Pairing Philips with Danielle Hunter will give the Vikings a solid pass rushing duo. Phillips struggled with injuries in college. In his one full year on the field this past fall, Phillips recorded eight sacks during a 10 game season. Phillips was the No. 1 rated recruit in the 2017 class, and so the Vikings have a chance to get tons of upside here. Minnesota ranked 26th in pressure late last year and they can fix that by drafting Phillips.
First Offensive Lineman picked - Penei Sewell (-500)
I know this number looks disgusting, but I see tons of value in it. Sometimes these types of bets are the best picks. Sewell is the best offensive lineman prospect to come out since Quentin Nelson, and he is best offensive tackle prospect in a decade. The Bengals need to draft a left tackle to protect Joe Burrow, but they may prefer to go with Burrow’s former teammate JaMarr Chase with the No. 5 overall pick.
If Sewell falls past Cincinnati, expect him to be picked up by the Lions at 7. Detroit wants to be extremely physical under their new regime (I seem to remember something about "biting knee caps") and I love this pick for them.
Kyle Pitts over 5.5. (+285)
Kyle Pitts is the best tight end prospect in my lifetime. But are we really going to see a TE picked in the top five ?
If you think the answer is yes, what you are wagering on is that the Falcons will keep this pick. Atlanta has a million other needs and pass catchers are not one of them. Still, if the Falcons stay at four he is probably the choice.
However, if the 49ers pick Mac Jones keeping Justin Fields and Trey Lance on the board, can we see a team move up to get one of those quarterbacks? It seems likely. If so, Pitts will fall.
We know the Bengals are in love with JaMarr Chase. We can see the Dolphins getting a Kyle Pitts gift at No. 6.
I can certainly see it, +285 is great value here.
Running back picked in the First Round - Yes (-500)
This may be my favorite NFL Draft prop of all time. I got this priced at -250 when the market opened up but I will pay the -500 since its a virtual guarantee that its going to happen. We can get an immediate 20 percent return on our investment.
There are two legitimate first round backs in this draft with Travis Etienne and Najee Harris. There are three teams looking to draft a running back in the first round- the Steelers, Dolphins, Bills and Jets are in the market for dynamic running back. The Dolphins and Jets also have multiple first round picks.
North Carolina running back Javonte Williams has been reported as a guy who could be surprise first round pick according to Tom Pelissero.
The running back position isn’t dead, look for Harris and Etienne’s names to be called on Thursday.
Javonte Williams - Under 42.5 (via DraftKings)
We mentioned Williams in the section above, and the UNC back is gaining legitimate steam in NFL draft rooms. If you watch college football, you know Williams was one of the breakthrough players in the ACC in this season. Williams and his teammate Micheal Carter provided the most dynamic one two punch duo in college football. Williams is a unique three down back who excels at running in between the tackles.
Williams doesn’t get past Atlanta’s 36th overall pick in the second round - lock this number in confidently.
Tevin Jenkins - Under 24.5 (via DraftKings)
Jenkins is the most underrated tackle in this draft class. The mauler from Oklahoma State is one of the nastiest offensive lineman we’ll see selected this weekend and his addition will boost the physicality of any team. Jenkins started four years at Oklahoma State.
The tackle spot is a huge position of need for many teams picking in the 18-24 range. The Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Colts, or Pittsburgh seem like logical spots for him.
Look for Jenkins to be picked in that range. Take the under.
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