Week 1 College Football Picks: Texas-Ohio State, Miami-Notre Dame, LSU-Clemson and much, MUCH MORE!
Sponsored by Circa Sports
Well folks, we've made it. After eight months, we can officially say.... IT'S TIME TO FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL.
That's right with Week 0 in the book, it's time to look ahead to Week 1 and the return of our college football betting picks. Transparently, I think we were about as accurate as any outlet in the country last year hitting on 62 percent of our picks (55-33 overall) during the 2025 season. Oh, and for good measure we got off to a 1-0 start last week with Iowa State +3.
Still, as Lamar Jackson once said "Nobody Cares, Work Harder" and we're back for another season.
Before we get started a couple quick reminders.
One, make sure you're subscribed to our "College Football Betting Pod" where we do deep dives on all the big games. It's available on Apple, Spotify and YouTube and again, I believe the information we give out is as good as anyone's in the media.
Two, we have a NEW partner this year - as we welcome in Circa Sportsbook as the official odds provider of all things Aaron Torres. If you're in Nevada it's not too late to sign up for their "Circa Millions" pick 'em contest, or "Circa Survivor" which I'll be participating in this season. Each is $1,000 to enter with millions in prizes.
By the way, if you're in Kentucky - also be sure to visit their new property in Franklin, Kentucky. It features a replica to Circa's Vegas sportsbook, the largest in the world.
Now that we've gotten all the fun stuff out of the way, it's time to get to work.
Here are our Week 1 picks, with odds provided by Circa!
Georgia Tech at Colorado (+4.5): Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Let's skip straight past a fun (but from a betting perspective, "uninspiring") Thursday slate and get to a couple games that I have my eye on Friday.
And let's start with a very simple question: Are Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes being overlooked again this season? Because I kind of think they are.
If you remember last year, it felt like the books never really caught up with Colorado, who quietly became a betting darling. They went 9-4 against the spread, including 9-2 in their final 11 games of the year - smashing several point spreads. For example, they were a 13-point underdog against UCF last year - and won by 27. A two-point underdog against Arizona - and won by 27.
Now heading into this year, it feels like because they lost Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter people again think they'll stink and I don't see it.
What I do see is a team which added one of the best quarterbacks in the transfer portal (Kaidon Salter), have arguably the best wide receiver corps in the Big 12 and - as easy as it is to forget - one of the best defenses as well. Am I the only one that remembers Colorado led the Big 12 in sacks and TFL's last year? And they return most of their production?!
As for Georgia Tech, they are a darling of the preseason college football community, and I get it. Good season last year, wins over Miami and Florida State, recognizable QB in Haynes King.
But to ask them to fly cross country, play at altitude, at night, on a short week against that ferocious front seven and walk out with a touchdown win feels like a bit much.
I've got Colorado winning outright -but let's just take the +4.5 here and start Week 1 off with a winner.
Auburn at Baylor (UNDER 57.5): Friday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX
I mean serious question: Is there a single, bigger swing game in Week 1 for any program that this one for Auburn?! If they win it, all the talk about Hugh Freeze's golf game, Jackson Arnold, whatever, it all goes away.
Lose, and well.... we know exactly what the narrative will be at midnight ET heading into Saturday.
There's a lot at stake for Freeze and Auburn - and frankly it's why I like the UNDER here.
When a coach is under pressure, with a new quarterback who has a history of being turnover prone, what is the most likely outcome on the road: He's going to play things tight to the vest, right? Especially when - as easy as it is to forget - the Tigers had a Top 30 defense nationally last year as well.
That's right, there's no need for Freeze to take big shots nor will Dave Aranda let him. He's been talking all week about limiting the big play, and I believe Baylor will.
As for when Baylor has the ball, look I know this offense was explosive late last year. But they are down two of their top three running backs and despite the big numbers they put up last season, it's easy to forget most was against the bottom of the Big 12. Of their six wins to end the regular season - which was when the offense blew up - only two of those teams ended up bowl eligible.
Going up against an elite Auburn defense I'm not sure they'll be able to move the ball, and frankly I'm not sure how much Auburn even wants to move the ball in what will be a hostile crowd in Waco.
This game has 24-20 written all over it - and an easy under hit.
No. 1 Texas (+2.5) at No. 3 Ohio State: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Ah yes, the game America has been waiting for. No. 1 vs. No. 3. Ohio State vs. Texas. The defending champ and the newest Manning. A rematch of a College Football semifinal from a season ago.
What more could America ask for? Not much, I tell ya. Not much.
Yet what's crazy coming into this game is how little we actually know about these teams. Ohio State lost 14 players to the NFL off last year's title team and both coordinators to other jobs. Meanwhile Texas lost 12 players to the draft, including its starting quarterback and virtually its whole o-line.
So ultimately, in a situation where we know so little about two teams the logical question is: What do we know? And who do we trust?!
Well, the one thing that I know coming into this game is: Texas' defense is ELITE. They were basically tops in every category a season ago, and have two of the biggest game wreckers in the sport in edge Collin Simmons and linebacker Anthony Hill.
Beyond that: Who do I trust? Well in this case, both play-callers. Steve Sarkisan's track record speaks for itself, especially with young quarterbacks. And the defensive staff returns largely in tact.
As for Ohio State well look, there are clearly places on the field I feel confident. You've probably heard of Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs.
My issue is pretty much everywhere else.
Not just on the field. But on the headsets as well.
And actually, that's my biggest worry for Ohio State. Not any individual player or position group but their two coordinators. It's easy to forget is that the new offensive coordinator Brian Hartline is actually the old offensive coordinator, promoted into the role in 2023, only to be demoted after an uninspiring 2023 season and replaced as primary play-caller by Chip Kelly. So, we're just magically supposed to believe that 18 months after being demoted he has things totally figured out on the headset?
As for Matt Patricia, well, whatever you think about him, he's coming to a new level of football, with new rules and almost an entirely new group of players being asked to do entirely new things.
Add it up, and I like Texas here.
The Longhorns are quietly on an 11-game road win streak, one that includes wins at Alabama, Michigan and Texas A&M among other places.
They add the Shoe to their list on Saturday.
No. 8 Alabama at Florida State (+13.5): Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So if you listened to Monday night's Aaron Torres Pod, you know I think quite highly of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Like, "I have them playing for a national title" highly.
But let me also say this: I also believe people are sleeping on Florida State coming into the season.
Yes, I know they were terrible a year. But wasn't last year also the perfect storm of "Hangover from the season before, combined with the worst possible QB choice (shout out DJ U!) and injuries submarining a season where the Seminoles were already overrated coming into the year?" Because I kind of feel like it was.
Well this year I'm not saying that Florida State is back in ACC title contention, but do think they're much better than the 6.5 wins Circa Sportsbook is projecting them to finish with.
And it starts with their new play-caller.
While I know Gus Malzahn is easy to take digs at, let's also remember he had a Top 5 run offense in all of college football at UCF last year. Yes, Thomas Castellanos has been running his mouth wayyyyyyy too much this off-season but he is also the right QB for this system, and will have a bunch of running back help alongside him.
Like UCF last year, I expect Florida State to run the ball on everyone they play in 2025. Including Alabama Saturday.
And transparently, I also think they can slow down Alabama's offense on Saturday afternoon as well.
Remember, this will be Ty Simpson's first career start and it will be on the road in a hostile environment where the current ticket get-in price is well over $200. He will also be without his No. 1 tailback Jam Miller and will be throwing against Florida State's defensive strength, it's secondary.
I don't know if Florida State has enough to win, but could I see this being a 31-24 type final score with the Crimson Tide needing to hold on late? I could.
Give me the Seminoles and the points at home.
No. 8 LSU at No. 4 Clemson (-4): Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
In my opinion, Ohio State-Texas is the game for the college football casuals, the NFL Sunday people who want something to watch on Labor Day weekend.
But for the college football diehards, LSU-Clemson is the game of Week 1, and the one with the most at stake.
If LSU loses this game, it's a fourth straight season-opening loss for Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge, and he'll be right back into the "We suuuuuure he's the right guy for this job" conversation we've basically been having since his first game against Florida State three seasons ago.
If LSU wins it props them up as maybe the national title favorite, and also a bit of a black eye for the ACC with your best team losing at home to an ACC power.
So which way will the game tilt: In my opinion Clemson's, as Dabo Swinney and the boys get a statement win.
First, from the LSU side of things, the one narrative I continued to be baffled by is the notion that Garrett Nussmeier is some sport-altering quarterback. He's totally fine, but nothing special and the stat that backs it up is pretty straightforward: In eight SEC games last year, against clearly elite competition, he threw for 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
That's the guy y'all are touting as the No. 1 pick in the draft?! Sorry, not sorry. I just don't see it. At all. If anything I see this year's Will Levis or Quinn Ewers - the NFL Draft darling that college football fans know is average.
Then there's Cade Klubnik, who - in a sports media eco-system where we discuss and over discuss everything - has somehow become underrated. He finished last season with 35 touchdown passes and nearly 700 yards rushing, and for anyone who says "Oh, it's only the ACC" well, all I'll say is that he and the Clemson offense did more damage against Texas in the College Football Playoff than basically any SEC team did during the year.
Beyond that, Clemson's biggest strength on defense (the defensive front) goes up against LSU's biggest weakness (an entirely new o-line built through the transfer portal).
Add in home field advantage and this has been one of my favorite bets since the lines were announced in the spring.
Clemson wins and covers the four.
No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 10 Miami (OVER 49.5): Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Let's move to Sunday night, and a game that - along with Texas and Ohio State - I'm as uncertain of as any on the slate. Yeah, I'm talking Notre Dame-Miami.
On the Notre Dame side, there is a lot to like. A LOT. Jeremiyah Love may be college football's best running back. The Irish have another elite o-line. Oh, and this might be the deepest receiving corps that the Irish have had in this Brian Kelly/Marcus Freeman decade-long run they've had in the Top 10.
At the same time, they also have a quarterback who quite literally has never thrown a college pass. And a new defensive coordinator after Al Golden left for the NFL.
As for Miami, the positives are plenty of talent on the skill positions and plenty of size and physicality along both lines. They also have Carson Beck coming off elbow surgery at quarterback, a totally rebuilt secondary and new defensive coordinator in his first night at the U. Oh, and they have Mario Cristobal at head coach, who while a brilliant recruiter, ummm leaves a bit to desired on game-day.
So where does that land us: To me, with the over.
When Notre Dame has the ball, do I expect Carr to be great?! Not really. But Love and the o-line will do the heavy lifting and the offensive line will lean on a defense which again, has everything brand new under new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman. Even if Heatherman eventually gets things figured out, it's hard to assume it will all happen in Week 1. And it's also worth noting that Carr will be throwing against a secondary where basically every key piece has arrived on campus within the last few months.
Then, when Miami has the ball, well a question: Is Carson Beck actually a little bit undervalued at this point?! I mean, yeah it was weird at Georgia last year. But the o-line stunk, the wide receivers couldn't stop dropping balls and he still managed to throw for 28 touchdowns with a 68 percent completion percentage.
The Notre Dame defense meanwhile was very good last year, but again, has a new man leading it. It's also worth noting that a lot of Notre Dame's damage came courtesy of forced turnovers, a category in which they led the nation last year. But is that something that's really replicable year after year?!
For this game to go under 49.5, we're talking about like a 28-20 final score.
Don't we all agree there will probably be more points than that?! I'm taking the over.
TCU at North Carolina (UNDER 56.5): Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
It's the debut of Bill Belichick in Chapel Hill, and quick question: Are we all getting a little too much revisionist history on.... maybe the greatest defensive mind ever?!
I know it's gotten weird in his world (shout out Jordan Hudson!) but even when it "fell apart" in New England, he still had the seventh ranked defense in the NFL. And had a track record for messing with the heads of young QB's.
Well, as good as TCU's Josh Hoover was, give Belichick eight months to prepare and my guess is Hoover will be seeing ghosts.
As for the UNC offense, does "throw it all over the field and score a bunch of points" sound like how Belichick wants to play?! Or will there probably be a lot of ball control, clock management and waiting for the other team to beat itself.
This number has already fallen two points (from 58.5) since Monday. And I expect it to continue to drop until the game is kicked.
Grab it at 58.5 while you can now.
Enjoy Week 1 everybody!!!!
Last Week's picks: 1-0
Last year: 55-33
